A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
